PARENT SESSION
Oral Session - Human Influences on Landscape and Watershed Processes Chair(s): Lopez, Ricardo ¹, ¹ Landscape Ecology Branch, Las Vegas, NV
Wednesday, March 31, 2004 1:00 PM - 4:20 PM Zeus Room B

Potential future impervious area and stream ecosystem effects in North Carolina. ^*HARRISON, JAMES E. ¹, CAKIR, HALIL ², BIRD, SANDRA ³, GILLIAM, JAMES F. ², MACPHERSON, PATRICIA ⁵, EXUM, LINDA ³ and PERKINS, CHRISTINE ⁴, ¹ US Environmental Protection Agency - Region 4, Atlanta, GA, USA² North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA³ US Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA, USA⁵ North Carolina Division of Water Quality, Raleigh, NC, USA⁴ Computer Sciences Corporation, Athens, GA, USA

ABSTRACT- Continuing rapid urban and suburban growth throughout the Southeastern United States could have severe and potentially widespread detrimental impacts on stream resources. Official population projections, road expansion plans and concomitant commercial/industrial growth provide a basis to project the likely range of impervious surface area across North Carolina to the year 2030. Impervious area estimates by Hydrologic Unit are provided for each decade from 2000 to 2030. Given expected human population growth patterns, expansion of impervious surface will likely be concentrated in the Piedmont and upper coastal plain ecoregions, and in valleys of the Blue Ridge. Detrimental stream ecosystem responses can be expected due to hydrologic, stream habitat and channel morphology changes, as well as to pollutants associated with urban runoff. Future in-stream biological response to impervious area growth is estimated for the Piedmont based on benthic community response relationships. Without effective storm water management, growth of impervious surfaces will greatly increase the extent of stream ecosystem stress.

KEY WORDS: Future change projection, Urban growth, Impervious area, Stream ecosystems, Aquatic community response